NFL Week #4

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12-11-2 YTD. Maybe I should stay off MNF b/c I am 0-3, but 12-8-1 on Sunday.

Washington (-3)
The Skins are coming off a tough loss, but they face the Pats who are wihtout 5 defensive starters.

The Skins have been surprisingly balanced on offense, even with Ramsey leading the league in passing and Coles leading the league in receptions.

Baltimore (+3)
The Ravens are 15-6-1 ATS at home versus non-division teams. They are also 21-8-2 ATS as a dog under Billick.

Trent Green still has a tendency to throw INTs in bunches (5 already this year). Very few teams force turnovers better than the Ravens.

Philadelphia (+3)
I think the bye will help Philly here. They will try to pressure up the middle just like the Dolphins did.

I still do not think it is time to throw Philly to the wolves yet. The Bills will struggle to run the ball with all of their injuries at RB.

Pittsburgh (-3)
Huge Revenge Game. The Steelers are 5-1 ATS the L6 versus the Titans.

Also, the Titans are struggling to run the ball (78 ypg), while Pittsburgh ran for 138 last week and found their running game.

Tennessee's weakness on defense is their secondary and Maddox will be able to spread the ball around all over the place against them.

San Francisco (+1')
It looks like Frerotte will start today. The Niners defense has 13 sacks this year and will pressure Gus today.

Tice is 7-1 against the division, but only 3-7 outside of it and I think Minny is due for a letdown after beating all of their divisional rivals in 3 consecutive weeks.

Plus, the Niners should not have to worry about the kicking game since new PK Owen Pochman scored all 12 Niner points LW, by going 4-4.

To small a line here, makes me go with the dog.

Atlanta (+6)
The Falcons are 8-1-1 ATS L10 meetings.

I think the Panthers will be rusty off the bye week after being the talk of the league for upsetting the Bucs.

It's pretty easy to play on a home team against a visiting team who lost their L2 at home. However, 63% of the time (since 1986) the visiting team covers in this situation.

Detroit (+12')
Letdown time for Denver with a road game at KC on deck.

Also like the Saints (+2') tonight.

GL
 

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